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When it comes to this game I have too much time on my hands. That said I have done many experiments in this very area of interest. The bottom line is this:
The more skill points in treasure sense the higher the rate of royal chests and loot dropped. Period. Don't believe me then do the experiment your self. Here is how to to it:
1. Pick a ship to plunder with(bigger the better).
2. Start with zero treasure sense.
3. Choose an enemy ship to sink.
4. Sink that ship 10 times.
5. Record results of cargo / loot dropped.
6. Determine average of cargo / loot dropped.
Repeat above while adding one skill point in treasure sense each time.
The results will prove your theory above to be wrong.
One of my pirates has the Golden Charm(+3 Treasure sense) and max treasure sense. For a total of 8 Treasure sense. I get no less then 1 skull chest per run. I get a load of full royals in about 15-25 mins sailing. I sail in the Hinterseas only. I have received up to 4 skull chests in a single run. The lost sword has been found on my ship 6 times that I know of. Again the proof is in the pudding.
Go forth and make some pudding!
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