1 million and 200,000
 

OK gang.
Just a little side game we can play.

Right now, as a guild, we have 951,000 Enemies defeated, and we have 176,000 ships sunk. (Plus or minus a few.)

Here's a thread where we can all predict WHEN we are going to hit 1,000,000 enemies defeated, and 200,000 ships sunk. We will also use this as a countdown thread.

All entries should be posted prior to us getting 975,000 enemies and before getting 180,000 ships.

The person(s) who predict the closest date on EACH of the targets, without going over, gets 25K in gold PER goal. That's right, I'll give away 50K in gold.

The deciding dates will be based on when the numbers show up on DxD, not the delay, but the actual date that DxD says we have reached the goal.

Oh my god... too many variables, Bas. Never know when Davy's going to come online. Haha

Davy was online last night! And he better watch out, he is slipping in the top 100 list. I think Rachel is down to #65, and Davy II is in the 90's.

LOL, he asks me to do math...

I'll work out a guess once Travis gets me his schedule for the week ;) Travis? Busy the next few days? Lemme know.

Seriously, sounds like fun, i'll give it a shot. Where's my abacus....

I'll get out my Tandy 100 Computer (today known as a $1 calculator) and come up with a guess... though keep the money and give it to someone needing it - I'm in it for the fun :D

Mkay... Col. Mustard, in the study with a candle stick!

You all take this way too seriously... Wild guesses are where it's at.

I say we hit both August 2nd.

Alright, Here's My Guesstimates

Enemies : August 12th

Ships : August 15th

This of course could be totally off if Basil decides that the next three weeks guild night events are all GM challenges.....(which, I wouldn't put past ya), But! I stick to my guess ;)

I will be on Vacation next week so im saying Aug 10 for kills and Aug19 for ships

August 11th!

Ahhh, nerdy
 

Always the adamant nerd that I am, I did some calculations.

First I would like to praise our guild for an amazing pace on both enemies killed and ships sunk. By considering the main starting point for these numbers as September 7th, 2009 (the day most of the guild moved here from TEC), calculating that there were 313 days from that date till today, and dividing by these numbers given by Basil, guild we have some amazing daily averages.

As a guild we average

3038.34 enemies killed every day!

and

562.30 ships sunk every day!

That is some pace we are setting.

Based on this information (which may make things easier for others) I predict that we will hit the one million mark on enemies defeated

August 8th, 2009

and I predict we will hit the two hundred thousand mark on ships sunk on

September 4th, 2009.

However, these are not my official guesses. Because this is a competition for the guild, this will change the rate at which we kill things. In addition we have discussed plans on increasing how much we kill. Therefore that should account for a marked increase in our rates as a guild. Considering this information my official guesses are

1,000,000 Enemies defeated will occur on August 7, 2009

200,000 ships sunk will occur on September 2, 2009

Beat that nerdy-ness!!!! :bookishfj7:

...August 5th!

Lol, why did you change? :laughks2:

Enemy Aug 11th '09

Ships Aug 16th '09

I did math too, but I didn't have a clear average figure (too lazy to figure out).

I also factored in my own contribution, and therefore conclude August 5th. Thanks for the help, Rich. Haha

Closest without going over? ;)

Yeah, Let's say that Person 1 guesses September 23rd for Enemies. Person 2 guesses September 27th. We reach it on September 25th. They are both off by two days, but Person 1 wins. Person 2 is 'over' by two days.

No math involved here - just tossing out dates ..

August 16th for enemies.

September 1st for ships.

I'm probably way off for both but I liked those dates.

No matter what date we reach each milestone, we have fun doing what we do, and that's the important part! :)

:dancetl6:

maybe sooner i started my morning run today lol

Gah! The Davy factor! There's no telling now.

Tomorrow, July 24th. Haha

Yeah...but I'm going to win, muahahahahaha!

July 25th, 1:25 AM. Pacific Time. 2010.

Lol.. nice, but Basil asked for the guesses of when we would hit the 1 million enemy and 250K ship kills, not the dates for when we hit 2 mill and 500K.

*who let the Mr Smarty-pants in? :D

This year......

I let myself in, thank you very much. I dunno, in all seriousness, (which I actually possess an incredible amount of,) I'd say that it may come within a week of a week (2 weeks) with this little hodge podge of an event. I messed up the smilie in quote sadly.

Okay, I'm gonna say enemies, August 9th, Ships on September 3rd.
(Hee hee, I did the math for this all over my arm and wrote all the guesses down on the back of my hand so I wouldn't use someone elses. If I did anyway, oops, I'll change it.)

Well, quite frankly, the numbers are as follows: I'm hungry, to the fifth power. As well, I've slept only once in the past year (though this was for a good part of a year). Quite frankly, the math states that... that I'm in no condition to do math, or even think for that matter.

So I suppose that though it tarries, we must wait for it, for as it will come, it will surely not tarry.

lol.. i just got a kick out of your smart aleck guess... pffft 2010

I get the impression that League thinks all we do is chat, afk push, and test out the Revive feature on test.

Wait....that is what we do...

I'll post my guesses before I go to bed this morning.


EDIT: Here they Are:

My guesses.. Enemies: July 30th
Ships: Sept 5th

Guesses made so far:

Zilly -- Enemies, Aug 2 Ships, Aug 2
Sarah - Enemies, Aug 12 Ships, Aug 15
Travis - Enemies, Aug 10 Ships, Aug 19 (Revised ships date Sep 30)
Richard - Enemies Aug 8 Ships, Sep 4
Jess - Aug 11, Aug 5, Aug 5 again, then Jul 24
Kid - Enemies, Aug 11 Ships, Aug 16
Lady F - Enemies, Aug 16 Ships Sep 1
Hawke - Enemies, Aug 9 Ships, Sep 3
Kelly - Enemies, Jul 30 Ships, Sep 5 (Revised Enemies, Aug 13, Ships, Sep 10)
Hexsilver - Enemies, Aug 14 Ships, Sep 6
Enrique - Enemies, Aug 15 Ships, Sep 8
Max - Enemies, Aug 7 Ships, Sep 5
Basill - Enemies, Aug 10 Ships, Sep 14
Amelia H -- Enemies, Aug 16 Ships, Sep 7
Piper -- Enemies, Aug 15 Ships, Sep 7
Tandy -- Enemies, Aug 13 Ahips, Oct 8

Friday, July 24 DxD report is:
Enemies - 951339
Ships - 176065

(Somehow, I think those were the same numbers from before the plunder party on Wednesday night.)

I will update this post with any additional or new guesses.

Enemies: August 14, 2009
Ships: September 6, 2009

enemies: august 15th
ships: september 8th

As of today we are at
957542
176678
and i think with D shutting everything down Wednesday night noone got DXD credit for number of kills or ships sank on Wednesday!

Ok, the Tandy 100 computer has finally finished its computations....

August 7th For 1mil kills
Sept 5th For 200k ships

:D

By today's DxD count:

Enemies Defeated - 963505
Ships sunk - 177321

Guessing on ships stops when we reach 180,000 and on enemies it stops when we reach 975,000.

OBTW: My guesses

1,000,000 enemies defeated on August 10
200,000 ships sunk on September 14

Updates Post #29, the master list of guesses

I would like to change my ship guess to Sept 30! We have untill we get to 180000 right?

Anyone can change their guesses up until the count limits that I posted below. (September 30th??? Oh ye of little faith!)

Another OBTW:
I promise to NOT put out any GM challenges as Guild events until after we reach our target numbers. I don't want to be accused of skewing the contest. (Then again, nothing prevents any of you from forcing the issue and trying to make your own guess date be correct.)

Count for today:

Ships - 177688 (#68 on all time 100 list)
Enemies - 967971 (#55 on all time 100 list)

Keep your guesses coming!

August 16 for Kills
Sept. 7 for Ships

Todays Count:
Enemies -- 974097 (We moved up one spot on all time list to #54)
Ships -- 177923 (We also moved up one spot here to #67)
GRATS to all for the moves.

Count is getting close to the cut off point for guesses on both categories. I would think that tomorrow we will hit the cutoff on Enemies.

Updated post #29 with the latest guesses.

Recalculating my wild guesses:

Enemies: Aug 13th

Ships: Sept 10th

Updated the guess post, #29 in this thread.

By today's DxD report, I think all guessing will be closed by Sunday at the latest.
(Meaning, get your guesses in today, maybe you will have tomorrow, maybe not.)

Total count as of today:
Enemies defeated, 977387
Ships Sunk, 179269

OBTW, the little Plunder Party we held as part of Guild Night, moved us up another 2 spots on the overall leaderboards to #65 for ships sunk!
WTG, and Grats to all!

Okay...uh...totally wild guesses: August 15 for enemies, September 7 for ships. :)

LAST DAY to post or change your guesses!


DxD count this morning is

979527 Enemies Defeated
179885 Ships Sunk

Congratulations Boss, you got me doing math before noon on a Saturday! Eek! I sat there and calculated the averages since you posted this and I came up with numbers shockingly close to my first guesses. So I stand by my numbers. But wow are we moving up!

We are going by the date it hits the leaderboard not the in game date right?

The date it shows on DxD!

Kay good. That's the date I was working with. :)

OK so I am going to say;
August 13th for enemies killed - if it isn't too late to get my vote in .)
And,
October 8 for ships sunk.

Tandy's vote counts, but voting is now closed.


Today's DxD report
Enemies -- 982434
Ships -- 180232

DxD for today:

Enemies Defeated -- 985633
Ships sunk -- 180837

DxD report for August 4:

Enemies defeated 987971
Ships sunk 181614

Updated post 29 with everyones guesses/status.

aug 15...just added some to the count lol

DxD report for 8/5.

Enemies -- 990577 (Moved us up one more spot on the overall 100 list to #53. Less than 10K til 1,000,000.)

Ships -- 181961

Oh, and Davy comes in for just a little while and throws Rachel into the #1 spot on the guild for the day. WTG!

lol.. Davy where are you planting yourself?

Is it the day it shows up on dxd or the day the kill happened?

It's the day it shows up on DxD! And I see that Travis is taking action to try to control his own fate on being right.

Today's ( August 6th) DxD report:

Enemies
TRAVIS #16 for the day with 1526 enemies (You may have pushed too hard Travis, there's still 4 more days til your guess.)
Guild #81 for the day with 2758
Count is now at 993335

Ships
BUG #66 for the day with 162
Guild #37 for the day with 877
Count is now at 182838

If we hit it on Sat it will show up on monday right?

Nope. If we hit it on Sat, it will show up on Sun. (Unless DxD screws up and doesn't update.. Which occurs every once in awhile, and on any day of the week.)

Oh darn! I thought guild numbers ran I day behind indiv numbers on dxd

They do, your 1526 kills from yesterday showed up on individual for today, but will be included in Guilld count tomorrow.

Oh, I see the confusion. Based on your question, then you are right. If the GUILD count reaches 1,000,000 on Saturday, then YES, it will show up for the GUILD on Monday! (Sorry, I answered correctly, but for the wrong question earlier.)

I really appreciate the updates here Bas!! I am not really in to numbers, I just play but it is kind of cool to get on the boards once in a while. I never check the boards myself so am thankful you post here!! See I really am sailing more than I used to, here is the proof lol :)

DxD report for 8/7.

Enemies -- 997935

See Travis, you did push too hard! LOL. 4600 enemies for Wednesday put us at #30 guild for the day.
It looks like anyone who guessed tomorrow, the 8th, (Richard, with all his math) will be the winner for the Enemies Defeated part of the contest. A rough count of yesterdays individual stats should put us over the 1,000,000 count!

Ships -- 183247
Wednesday's guild night with no rep slowed us down there. (Intentionally?? The GM wants to make sure HE gets the right date for the ships part of the contest! Just Kidding.)

Congrats to the entire guild for reaching the 1,000,000 mark!
Congrats to Richard for making the correct guess on what date we would reach it.
Richard wins 25K in gold, for whoever he wants to have it given to.


Ships sunk -- 183986

Still have a ways to go to the 200,000 mark.

Updated post 29.

WTG Dueces and great job picking the right day Rich!

Congrats to everyone!

Haha, well unfortunately all of my pirates have max gold. Gotta love glitches.

Wooo, congrats Rich!! :biggrin8:

WTG on the 1,000,000 and the Guess.

Nice mathematical skillz Rich!!!!

DXD report for today.

Ships Sunk -- 184456

DxD report

Ships sunk
185296

Yeah... What ever Rich!!!

Seriously Rich...Congratulations

DxD for today

Ships sunk 185713

Congrats Rich :D I was so close by only a day or two - stoopid Tandy Computer... that - and that glitched sailing server derailed my evil plans for Ruling the World! HAHAHA...

Oh wait... that a different plan ;)

DxD report for today:

Ships -- 186668 Sneaking up slowly

Todays DxD report

Ships Sunk -- 187845

Not sure how reliable this is anymore.

Still prolly not all that currently correct but at least the number has changed, now it says 188428. So it is moving but what day that's for is very questionable.

DxD is now showing 189611 for ships sunk.

Here's the thing. With them not counting for that time period they were broken, what happens if we now all overshot? I mean if it's nearest to without going under, and we all went under, then what?

My date of Sept. 30 is looking pretty good right about now!

It's closest without going Over, Hawke, and DXD mess up aside, I think we have to stick with those numbers....grrr ;)

I don't know Travis, Redflint's been a sinking fool the last few days....(keep it up Davy!)

Ya, that's what I meant. I think. ? That is to say if the date is after everyone's guess, even Travis. Like what if it's past everyone's guess?

If it is past everyones guess then the last guess wins which I think is Tandy!

It appears that DXD is down again none of Bens stats have updated since at least Wednesday!

DXD is back but still not right it is listing Travis and Jeremiah at 43 when last I played they were both 41 in game. Our current ship total is 189765.

Up to 191024 getting close!

Travis, I think you are the only one left with a guess that qualifies ;) Soooo...DIRT!

Even though I believe that DxD totally messed this contest up,

TRAVIS is officially declared the winner!


Travis, let me know what you want me to do with the winnings. Once I get ingame, I'll give it to whomever you want me to.